Financial Doom – you are witnessing the fall of an empire.

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This topic contains 176 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of jules jules 1 year, 10 months ago.

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  • #9430
    Profile photo of fishfryer
    fishfryer
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    The U.S. and how our turn is over. This thread is more for me keeping my thoughts straight than anything else. I do appreciate people disagreeing with me or asking questions because it makes me do research and fill in the blanks in my thoughts. While I hope I am wrong, it just seems like the end is near for our way of life.

    #9431
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    fishfryer
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    Greece, you all know that they are collapsing. Their problem, a lack of exports has created a debt to GDP ratio that is so high that they cannot ever hope to pay off or even finance that debt. It is on par with ours in the U.S.

    Spain will collapse next. Then most likely the U.S.

    Our trade deficit is $52 billion per month, that means that we, as a country send $52 billion out every month that has to be replaced. We do that by going into debt. We now owe $16 trillion. In contrast, Russia is only in the hole for about $130 billion, less than 1% of what we owe.

    Oweing money is bad, but not being able to pay the interest on that loan is worse, but worse than that is borrowing more money from yourself to go further into debt to buy stuff you don’t need. Yes that sound insane and almost not possible, but this is what our country does.

    This is not a political thread meant to say vote for Obama or not or Romney or not, both democrats and republicans are guilty. This thread is mearly a list of my random thoughts on the subject of why I think that our path is unsustainable and how I plan on saving myself. If these thoughts make sense to you, maybe you might also take some precautions too.

    Either way, much like the majestic cockaroach after a nuclear war, I will be fine. My ability to plan for the worst is only outdone by my paranoia. 8-O

    #9435
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    bambam
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    $52 billion per month=$1.2 million per minute , those are some serious dollars

    #9437
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    juliet
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    bambam:
    $52 billion per month=$1.2 million per minute ,those are some serious dollars

    I thought the $16 trillion bit sounded a lot worse though ..lol

    #9441
    Profile photo of cbrclassic
    cbrclassic
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    I certainly agree with you Fish …
    It has been written about many many times, over many years , that a system depends on and is based on seemingly endless expansion and endless growth, that operates in any closed environment cannot go on forever .

    I personally believe that all of us alive at the moment , will probably go through some very hard suffering times financially for quite some time to come and that any end as you put it , will be still some time down the road …

    What happens at the end is anyone’s guess and plenty of economists around the world have many different views about what it will be like in the distant future .

    My view on “the end” is that the entire world be be divided into the “haves” and the “have not’s” to an extent where civil life as we know it will break down .

    The world already is run by just a few huge corporations and I believe that , that type of system will eventually control the word entirely… It is said these days that these organizations do run the world behind the scene already? and that I feel will be our fate .

    Answering to a small group for everything we do or need to survive ..

    Definitely a sad situation … but inevitable .

    Myself and my wife moved ” OFF the Grid” as it is said these days a few years ago because most of the things mentioned above worried the heck out of us…
    We are physically connected to NO services at all . We generate our own power , our own water , we grow at the moment some or our own food and are expanding that set up each year.
    We only run a mobile phone connecting us with the outside world and that’s it ..

    We , as I already said probably have not too much to worry about , but our kids ?? they are a different thing ? I think they are in for some weird and some what hard times over the next 50 years .

    It amazes me that no in power over the last 50 years seemed to see this coming ?

    When I was a young guy , I used to sit and think to myself about how dam clever or intelligent the people must be that run the worlds countries ….. and guess what! , I very soon after tuning 20 , sat back eyes wide open and thought to myself again about how fvcking wrong I was.

    Steve

    #9443
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    fishfryer
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    I added up our combined trade deficit since the early 70s and it added up to about $11 or $12 trillion, Add to that the money printing, foreign aid, and wars and yes $16 trillion is a lot. It is so bad that our government has to buy 61% of our own debt. I know that makes no sense on any level, but one branch of the government floats a bond, another branch buys it and then the first branch gives the money away. Then that money is sent to China, Saudi Arabia, Germany, foreign aid, or any other place we have a trade deficit with.

    #9444
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    bambam
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    Juliet:

    i agree , but until we plug that hole , that figure will continue to grow at an alarming rate..

    #9447
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    fishfryer
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    cbrclassic:

    We , as I already said probably have not too much to worry about , but our kids ?? they are a different thing ? I think they are in for some weird and some what hard times over the next 50 years .

    You are in Australia? Right? I think you will be OK, Maybe better than OK. Same with the Canadians. They have a good set up too.

    #9448
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    cbrclassic
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    Fish, it is only a matter of time before all countries get crunched ..
    Here in Aus there are plenty of signs of it coming.
    Costs spiraling , wages not allowing families to make ends meet , all of the things that you guys have been watching happen for years .

    I do tend to chuckle when I see anyone play with the figure’s .. Debt ? GDP, what ever …
    The bottom line is , that this system is becoming un workable world wide and it will just hit some countries a little lighter? and perhaps may be a little later hitting some …

    Do not be fooled into thinking that this will not effect everyone , because it will and nothing that any wiz bang economist ,or smart arse government group will be able to stop it .

    The system is broken and it is not going to get better , different yes , but not better.

    #9451
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    juliet
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    The system is failing and the trouble is no one person can fix it because it was made by a lot of persons … I do think about it all but I don’t dwell on it … I’m not wealthy so don’t have much to lose if the world goes bankrupt, but I really don’t want to have to go and take baths outside in my canal or have to go back to lighting fires by hand after I’m used to buttons for everything now.

    Whatever happens, big changes are avast and we will all have to be flexible with upcoming changes, if we are inflexible we’ll simply break.

    #9452
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    cbrclassic
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    Juliet: Whatever happens, big changes are avast and we will all have to be flexible with upcoming changes, if we are inflexible we’ll simply break.

    That’s why we moved off the Grid onto 35 acres of treed bush Jules.
    Reliance on all of societies systems, is the main vulnerability that we all have and we had!.
    We also stopped relying on gas or electric cooking and heating ….we have a wood indoor fire, a full wood oven in our out door kitchen and a brick fire pit inside our outside kitchen for warmth too :-)

    I do not trust this system and have not for many many years…

    #9453
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    juliet
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    I simply have to post this again, we Brits find this kind of humour so funny and I laugh everytime I hear this guy … I hope the humour travels across the pond to you guys … watch the whole thing or at least watch it from 1:00 minute and especially from 2:40secs which is pertinent to this thread.

    #9456
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    woo545
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    Now, I thought part of Greece’s problem was rampant corruption which lead to it’s denizens to refuse to pay their taxes.

    As for the US, some real estate investors are jumping on distressed properties again, but failing to remember what happened a few years back. Partly to blame for this is the extremely low interest rates, which helps homeowners to refinance and keep a roof over their heads, but it will also start artificially raising values again.

    @fishfryer Also, Government is notoriously short sighted when things are going “well”

    #9575
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    fishfryer
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    Woo, the problem with Greece is their inability to EXPORT. Whether it be government regulations, laziness, or stupidity. The difference between them and us is that we are much more able to print dollars than they are able to print euros. What this allows us to do is postpone the inevitable. I read that our government has something like $80 trillion in unfunded liabilities out there which is above and beyond the $16 trillion in sovergn debt.

    Right now, as Europe collapse, all big money is running into the dollar because there is nowhere else to go, but this will all change in the near future. Japan may also run into huge trouble soon, this will also postpone our collapse, but the longer we go on like this, the worse it will be.

    For me it is fine, it gives me more time to prepare, but for the masses of people that are unemployed AND UNDEREMPLOYED they are screwed. Did you know 50% of recent colleges grads are unemployed or underemployed? If they aren’t working and paying taxes to finance our debt, who will? And remember, the government says we ARE NOT IN A RECESSION!

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/22/job-market-college-graduates_n_1443738.html
    http://blog.seattlepi.com/gettowork/2012/05/24/survey-sheds-light-on-recent-grad-hiring-gap/

    These numbers are very Greece and Spain like. The Japanese issue is demographics, but they are well and truly fucked too.

    Britain is even in a recession, what this is telling you is the western empire is failing, but the east is staring to rise. Yes China is going through some rockiness, but they are growing.

    #9658
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    Anonymous
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    Okay, well, but everything on the planet goes through cycles–people, continents, economies, meatballs. Collating one’s thoughts into a digital file labeled “doom” seems to be the opposite of preparedness. I understand paranoia is a useful tool when betting on the market (no need to ask if you bought into Facebook), and it probably helps to talk about what makes us really nervous in life, but the average joe with half a job and no degree is going to react very irrationally upon hearing that the western world has already started collapsing. You know, with denial, anger, rejection, more denial, then zombie attacks. And since they are truly the 99%, we need them to keep their last half wit. Instead of generalized and yet frighteningly specific apocalyptic scenarios, how about pointing that rare and bright intellectual spotlight out into the darkness and not in our eyes. Information, truth, and hope, yes; fear, uncertainty and doubt, no. How are the economies of Scandinavia doing, for instance. They seem to have smarter, more forthright social tendencies and programs, not to mention reasonably happy citizens. I’ve always wondered if there is a population limit on certain successful economic methods. Is America too big? Perhaps I could make a life in Montreal. :)

    #9981
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    fishfryer
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    http://beta.fool.com/peterpham8/2012/05/28/iran-brics-and-why-gold-now-money/4785/?source=eogyholnk0000001

    This is move by the Iranians to create a method for the world to buy oil. Right now all oil is bought with dollars. This creates an unnatural demand for dollars and an unnatural strength. The Central Bank of Iran is probably backed by Russia, china India and brazil and even the IMF.

    with Europe in a free fall, the western world is fairly weak.

    Expect some things to get worse in the form of oil prices.

    #9992
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    fishfryer
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    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1334941968.php

    Read this piece of history, and you will utterly scratch you head. Think about why so many other countries hate the U.S. and you will start understanding why we are the ‘worlds policeman’ and why we have trouble ahead.

    For those of you non-junkies, this thread I started a few years ago, but it was lost, the thing that worried me most was the loss of reserve status for the dollar. This is anoth nail in that coffin.

    #11851
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    fishfryer
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    If you want to know what the Chinese have been doing with all the money we give them from the crap we buy at Walmart…
    http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/09/world/asia/china-space/index.html

    They launch people into space. Mind you, we cant anymore because we cant afford it, thanks Obama/Bush/Clinton/Bush/Reagan/ for making us a country of consumers of cheap plastic crap.

    #11911
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    rod38um
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    They launch people into space. Mind you, we cant anymore because we cant afford it, thanks Obama/Bush/Clinton/Bush/Reagan/ for making us a country of consumers of cheap plastic crap.

    Its always easy to point the finger at who is charge but to be fair, we elected them. We have sent a clear message to politicians that we the people in each district like to recieve more than we pay in. The quickest way for any politician to get re-elected is to send as much pork back to his district as he can. I dont recall any politicians winning election by telling citizens that he is going to do absolutely nothing to benefit them accept ensure that their tax dollars are spent wisely. Lets be honest though, everytime a government program or benefit is established, it takes on a life of its own. We hire people whose sole job is to distribute this benefit and their interest is in making it grow, making more people eligible for it and growing the program as large as he can.
    Now our government is in the business of bailing out and propping up failure. Sure its nice we still have GM, Chrysler and all the big banks but……. they failed…. they would have been bought up, parted out and those parts back to making a profit with new management but now we just pour tax payer dollars into them so they can keep failing. If we had always done this we would still have people manufacturing horse drawn buggies supported by the tax payer……. I guess we could pile them up someplace……
    You are correct in thinking that if we dont get our spending under control, we are doomed. Any politician that has been serious about spending control is ridiculed so intensely by the media that they never get very far…….. its a sad state of affairs..

    #12168
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    woo545
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    It’s the…

    So you might want to stock up now! Perfect for the Financial Doom and Gloom or for the impending zombie apocalypse! Feed yourself for a month for about $5/day!

    http://www.bjs.com/augason-farms-emergency-food-storage-kit-1-month-1-person.product.211364?dimId=#more

    #12177
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    hoosier1104
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    I can see this happening. I really can. There is a reason I am buying several different types of firearms currently, this is it. Once this collapse happens, all hell is going to break loose. My goal is to have 10K rounds for every firearm I own; Mossberg 500 20 gauge, FN FNX 9mm, Taurus 24/7 .40 cal (going to be replaced with a FNX .40 cal) and FN 5.7. I am currently saving up for a HK MP5 .22.

    #12189
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    fishfryer
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    Firearms aren’t a bad idea, but ultimately you are buying guns just because you like them. I have a couple, but I don’t like them, they are tools, not toys. They are no different to me than a hammer or a wrench except that their mission is to kill things.

    Read this http://www.rapidtrends.com/surving-argentinas-economic-collapse-part-1-3/ if you want to hear somebody’s thoughts on what you need to survive. Mind you our collapse will not be anarchy, it will be a loss of buying power, and lower standard of living.

    #12190
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    fishfryer
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    I think we are going to see something interesting very soon. Iran will be banned from using SWIFT http://www.swift.com/ to get paid for their oil from most countries (almost all oil is traded in dollars and we control them). They claim to have set up another method.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-27/iran-has-set-up-alternative-to-swift-press-tv-says-citing-bank.html

    This all happens very soon, Russia has stated they will defend Iran and Syria from aggression, we recently overthrew Quadaffi in Libya, and we are destabilizing Syria and next is Iran. Mr Obama has been spending A BUNCH OF MONEY on his little quiet wars.

    http://news.yahoo.com/u-federal-government-budget-registers-125-billion-deficit-181352070–business.html

    So now Russia is arming Syria. http://www.capradio.org/news/npr/story?storyid=154857860 and has pledged to defend Iran. http://www.therightscoop.com/russia-ready-to-defend-iran-and-syria/

    While this all sounds very Nostradamas or Mayan 2012, my answer is simple, prepare for something to happen, because it is. And the U.S. will be a worse place to live (even if we win).

    #12191
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    bambam
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    @woo- that is the tastiest looking suvival food ever..

    #12392
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    fishfryer
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    Yes I know I am depressing. But what we are seeing in action is the failed policies of the last few Presidents and the cost of a few wars, some we needed, some we didn’t. Keep in mind that the only way our government can combat this and not have riots is to print money. Printing money is like a jelly donut, one or two is good, but any more than that is bad. We’ve had 6 jelly donuts thats why there are no jobs. Soon the dollar will be devalued to pax for the debt since everymonth we are $137 million in the hole deeper than the month before. Buy gold.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-weekly-jobless-claims-climb-to-386000-2012-06-14?siteid=YAHOOB

    Jobless claims climbed by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000 in the week ended June 9, the Labor Department said. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 380,000 from an original reading of 377,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level.

    #12520
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    Fish, I haven’t read this blog…but thought you might be interested in it. It’s from an economist in Greece (who ended being offered a position in Valve software to help with their digital economy) and talks a lot about what is going on in the European economy.

    #12524
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    fishfryer
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    Thanks woo, I just read through it, the bottom line is that I think either way they leave the euro. Money will be printed to help, but the problem is a west to east shift in power. The ECB has a few strong countries, but Greece is bad, spain is bad (and huge), maybe Italy is bad.

    This wont be over for a few years.

    #15711
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    woo545
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    The path to financial ruin. It’s called Walmart.

    #15712
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    kewlbreeze
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    Just received an AmEx letter in mail advertising in big bold print on front of envelope and inside: “HIGH-YIELD SAVINGS ACCOUNT 0.65% APY* …most competitive rates in the nation…. start saving today”

    #15715
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    fishfryer
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    Welcome to the world of negative ‘real’ rates where the interest paid is less than inflation.

    Your government wants you to spend and not save, the problem is when everyone is poor and already has no cash and high debt, you get doom.

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