Financial Doom – you are witnessing the fall of an empire.

RideCBR.com Forums RideCBR.com Member Clubhouse Financial Doom – you are witnessing the fall of an empire.

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  • #38359
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    jules
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    @kewlbreeze said:
    Where is that unicorns, candy and rainbow girl, we really need her here.

    She’s still here, kinda…

    Life may not quite be the dream we hoped for… but while we’re here we should embrace what we have, here in the *now* … we should just dance and be happy, we can learn from yesterday, we can live for today and we can hope for tomorrow… :-)

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will know peace...

    #48246
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    cbrclassic
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    The real truth

    #50684
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    fishfryer
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    The final endgame is now in place. The first article describe China saying they need no more dollars, the second is the acknowledgement of the Chinese yuan being used to buy oil. If you have been paying attention for the past several years, you know this is what my fear was. I had hoped this point would come around 2020 or better yet never, but now I think it happens much, much sooner, maybe 2015 or 16 you will start to feel the effects.

    Note, the only reason why the dollar is worth anything is because it was the ONLY Way to purchase oil for 40 years since Nixon took us off the gold standard and even before that, since the end of World War 2. Now that this is crumbling, so will our buying power.

    This does seem very, very hard to believe, but it is happening. This is actually worst case scenario. A few months back when John Kerry flubbed the Syrian war should have been the tip off, but the other piece of news is that we are loosening the grip on Iran. This shows how weak we have become. This is very, very bad stuff.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/pboc-says-no-longer-in-china-s-favor-to-boost-record-reserves.html

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/dan-collins/rise-petro-yuan

    #52422
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    If the facts stated in this video are accurate it’s even worse than I thought. Not sure what we can do about it but the facts we thought we knew put into graphical form are truly astonishing:

    9 Out Of 10 Americans Are Completely Wrong About This Mind-Blowing Fact

    And some more depressing facts about our economic status mobility probabilities:
    The myth of the American Dream

    I don’t agree with much from the prez but on this point he’s got it right. Sadly the proposals I hear to help fix it makes the problem worse imo.

    #53654
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    Good links kewl, it is amazing how the top 1% have gathered wealth. This trend started gaining speed when the dollar was taken off the gold standard and the Fed turned on the printing presses.

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/the-number-of-working-age-americans-without-a-job-has-risen-by-almost-10-million-under-obama/

    This is not meant to be an obama bashing post, he was handed a difficult situation that had started with nixon or maybe kennedy. His fault is not fixing it or not trying to fix it like many other presidents before him.

    That headline is not a misprint. The number of working age Americans that do not have a job has increased by nearly 10 million since Barack Obama first entered the White House. In January 2009, the number of “officially unemployed” workers plus the number of Americans “not in the labor force” was sitting at a grand total of 92.6 million. Today, that number has risen to 102.2 million. That means that the number of working age Americans that are not working has grown by close to 10 million since Barack Obama first took office.

    Read the link at the top of the post, it is pretty good.

    #53875
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    @kewlbreeze before the site went down i responded to your post. Cant remember exactly, but i remember thinking the following…

    The loss of manufacturing jobs here in the US happened due to automation. One big companies could build something with robots here, they just moved it to china and mexico. But the way they sold it to America was that automation would lower cost, plus create more high tech high paying robot repair jobs. That never happened.

    Now there is a move to raise minimum wage, this will then put burger flippers out of work, so not only did we lose 80% of manufacturing jobs recently, but soon we will lose low wage jobs. A rise in the minimum wage will crush jobs because once big mac automation takes hold, you cant stop it.

    #53898
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    Fish, first off, I agree with your post about Automation taking over part of low wage jobs but I think my original post had more to do with your last post (which got lost in the matrix) where you asked something along the lines of; “I don’t know if there’s a solution. Thoughts?”

    My post was way too long and I can’t remember most of it but it was something along the lines of: I think the only real solution is one that will never happen for two reasons 1) Because the ones at the very extreme top with most of the power and wealth in this country will do everything in their power to stop any real change that will effect their wealth and power and 2) Because the Left and Right want things their way and won’t compromise on the most meaningful things for political reasons only.
    That change being that there needs to be a true mix of the best of Socialist left and Capitalist Right ideas to allow for public to get in line with what is needed in the future (which is way off kilter at the moment; way too many people that have skills no where in line with what will be needed in the future … i.e. An incredible shortage of those with I.T. security skills, way too many with manufacturing skills, etc..). And I don’t see the generational gap solving that currently which it usually does. Another words one idea would be to cap the income (including investments) on the top 1% (Socialist Left). Not the top 10% mind you or the top 50% (like those who want to “fundamentally transform”) but the top 1% with the billions holding the vast wealth in this country. The majority of all solutions so far do nothing but move the middle class more into poverty which even still only effects the problem like a drop in the bucket rather than dealing with the real issue. And on the other side dealing with Welfare by changing the disincentive fraudulent state it is in and then allowing the trillions that will be made from the cap on the 1% to be put into technical and educational skills for those going into the job market by giving them grants with that money to get the skills to deal with what will really be needed by those coming out of the burger flipping jobs in the future (those that want to pull themselves out) .. a Capitalist Right idea. A mix. And as I said, I don’t mean limiting millionaires which would in essence limit innovation and ideas which has made this country what it is today, but limiting the multiple billionaires which have a hold on the vast resources of this country which the video I posted above points out. I think any sane objective person would agree that no one single person should could or needs multiple billions regardless of what they did or invented because it puts a stranglehold on the future of the economy but with zero cap that will happen. Again, none of that will happen due to those that have a strong incentive to stop it but that would be the only solution in my opinion.

    There was a lot more to the original post but I think it was somewhere along those lines. Thoughts?

    SUMMARY: I think the main key is dealing with getting rid of the top 1% and eliminating poverty at the bottom 5% to 15%. The current proposals thus far by the political class only deal with those in the remaining 94% which is backasswards in my opinion and only worsens the problem.

    #53908
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    Short answer, No, i don’t think there is a solution. I think that our way of life depended on printing money. For an empire to be powerful, it must possess the reserve currency, it must be able to print money and not weaken itself from loss of confidence.

    reserve currency

    Right now, we print money because we spend more than we make, we have been doing this since the 1970s, about 40 years. Typically that is about when the reserve status starts to weaken. What happens then is that imported goods cost more because there is a loss of confidence in the currency and more dollars are required to buy the same amount of goods, simultaneously, foreigners that hold dollars will want to spend their dollars because they are worried they will lose buying power, ultimately, the only place to spend dollars will be in the U.S., all that money running back here will cause even more inflation because there will be more dollars chasing the same amount of goods. That is good if you have a mechanism to gather those dollars like the top 1%, but if you dont, you make roughly the same money while things cost more. This is how the rich get richer.

    So the question is how does it turn around after a loss of reserve status, that I can’t see happening quickly or even in a decade or two. Right now we have a tremendous military, that is a blessing and a curse, it costs a crazy amount of money we dont have to finance it. But without the military, we cant defend Saudi Arabia and the usefulness of the dollar.

    Remember the WMDs that didnt exist? They were the reason we were told we had to kill Saddam, but the truth was he wanted to adopt the Euro as payment for oil, he was splitting from OPEC, then Kaddafi decided to trade oil for gold. You remember what happened to both those guys right?

    So, right now we spend trillions a year to secure the dollar, when that ends, and it will, how do we pay that back? We can’t, we have no exports, no manufacturing, only shopping malls. We have shale oil, that is a bright spot, but we cant pump oil like the middle east.

    The way out is a currency reset or decades of poverty and a currency reset. We have to do what made us great. At one time Detroit was the wealthiest city in the world, now it is bankrupt. China now manufactures most things, but soon they will have high enough cost of labor that myanmar and vietnam then africa take over. The chinese have to grab reserve status before they lose their manufacturing lead. So again, how do we compete against a third world country in manufacturing costs, we cant.

    I guess we need to work cheaper and harder. Can you see that happening when people are paid welfare and food stamps because there are no jobs. Right now there are many good people on welfare and food stamps, many are not lazy slobs, many are guys like us that cant find an opportunity. Those opportunities cant happen until we bottom, then rebuild. That could take a very, very long time.

    #54477
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    The latest talk out there is that within 5 years China will have similar military technology to us.
    http://freebeacon.com/pentagon-concerned-by-chinas-new-high-speed-missile/

    First off, I dont believe this, second, it is one thing to have technology, and another to be able to use it.

    If we consider where they may want to use it though, it becomes a lot more interesting. Our military spans the globe, China just may want to expand its borders a little. The home field advantage cant be ignored. The real worry is if they arm Iran or Syria, maybe this destabilizes the middle east. The middle east and how we protect Saudi Arabia with our military is the key to our dollar and our way of life.

    So just remember, everything you buy from china will in some way fuck you up in a few years.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/01/28/29-Jan-14-World-View-China-s-military-moves-to-seize-Malaysia-s-James-Shoal

    “China’s military moves to seize Malaysia’s James Shoal
    China has sent three armed ships to patrol the region around James Shoal in waters belonging to Malaysia that China has indicated in the past that it plans to seize. The shoal is named Zengmu Reef by the Chinese. According to Xinhua:
    During the ceremony held in the Zengmu Reef area, soldiers and officers aboard swore an oath of determination to safeguard the country’s sovereignty and maritime interests.
    [The fleet commander] urged soldiers and officers to always be prepared to fight, improve combat capabilities and lead the forces to help build the country into a maritime power.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/china-threatens-us-military-superiority-official-004825666.html

    #55256
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    While China has been fucking with Japan, Russia has invaded the Ukraine. This is interesting because in the past week, Obama decided to reduce the size of our army. Things with china aren’t standing still either, they have devalued their currency as opposed to allowing it to rise as it has been for quite a long while. Many people thing this yuan devaluation is a prelude to getting it out there in the world to rival the reserve status of the dollar, I haven’t thought about this long enough to understand it, but the yuan is already the 7th most used currency in the world. By the time it reaches 4 or 5 it will be fully convertible and ready to hurt the dollars dominance.

    #57021
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    This article describes china and Russia’s natural gas deal. For the next 30 years these two will conduct business outside of the U.S. Dollar with respect to energy to start, then of course other goods.

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gazprom-china-russia-sign-30-year-gas-deal-23807568

    Why is this important? The strength of our currency is the reason for our way of life, the reason for our strong currency is our military’s ability to kill those world leaders that try to escape the use of the dollar for energy sales and purchase.

    Nothing happens overnight, but many of us can see the job situation is poor in this country, many people on food stamps (51 million) many people on disability (11 million) and even our roads are falling apart.

    I have been bitching about this for maybe 5 years now, right? Things have not improved, the numbers can be cherry picked to show some positives, but most numbers are worse, especially the important ones. For those of you with a nice stock market portfolio, it’s been great, but the market is not an indicator for the economy.

    #57196
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    Some define a recession as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The real definition is more complicated, but we have had our first quarter of negative GDP growth.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2014/05/29/u-s-gdp-dropped-1-in-the-first-quarter-2014-down-from-first-estimate/

    Remember, the government is printing many tens of billions of dollars per month to improve the economy. They have been doing this for years, we are now $17.5 trillion in debt with no plan to get this economy moving.

    It will continue to get worse.

    #57559
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    More anti-dollar plans out there. Russia is a very large energy producer, we have lost them to dollar trade, we will continue to lose more countries.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-18/putin-advisor-proposes-anti-dollar-alliance-halt-us-foreign-aggression

    #57718
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    Now we are even seeing the mainstream media discuss this.

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/wow-mainstream-press-the-uss-dollar-domination-is-coming-to-an-end/

    “I was surprised to see an article in the Financial Times’ banking intelligence subsidiary (‘The Banker’) entitled “The US’s dollar domination is coming to an end.””

    #58218
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    And here it is.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-15/brics-announce-100-billion-reserve-bypass-fed-developed-world-central-banks

    “As we suggested last night, the anti-dollar alliance among the BRICS has successfully created a so-called “mini-IMF” since the BRICS are clearly furious with the IMF as it stands currently: this is what the world’s developing nations just said on this topic “We remain disappointed and seriously concerned with the current non-implementation of the 2010 International Monetary Fund (IMF) reforms, which negatively impacts on the IMF’s legitimacy, credibility and effectiveness.”

    #58724
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    News Flash:

    Argentina is in collapse and one of Portugals large banks is collapsing.

    #59997
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    @fishfryer said:
    Syria is just postponed.

    This you have to watch, at least the first few minutes.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAWzvtVJA5A

    Over a year ago it was obvious that Syria was postponed. We are attempting to go to war with Russia, we are doing this because the Russians want to sell energy in a currency other than dollars. For those of you that doubt any of this it is simple. Energy makes the world go ’round. Trading it in dollars make our world go ’round.

    http://www.infowars.com/not-restricted-by-borders-obama-admin-announces-plan-to-attack-isis-in-syria/

    #61018
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    And it has started.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/us-syria-crisis-usa-strikes-idUSKCN0HI03A20140923

    More disturbingly than bombing Syria is that more and more often all those wacky ‘conspiracy’ websites and news organizations are correct. I have seen it multiple times with both big stories and small. This means either the big main stream news organizations are controlled by the government or that they are really just as insightful as your average, mouth breathing, head up the ass american. They are sheep too, just like many of us.

    Anyway, the progression from here is that Europe has a problem next, the winter is coming and they are using Russian natural gas. Expect them to distance themselves more from the U.S. If you read the linked article, it is ‘the U.S. And Arab States’, not NATO. NATO includes turkey and Europe, they have already decided not to be part of this military campaign, the next step could be outright support of Putin.

    #62697
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    While we are enjoying the drop in energy prices, I think this is the trigger that will trigger the event I have been worried about.

    I think things start changing.

    #63476
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    After your windfall are you still in the market or out completely?
    Drop in energy prices is good individually but sucks collectively (not just financially but world stability as well) and it doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon: http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2015/0113/Falling-oil-prices-Why-the-oil-bust-is-here-to-stay

    #63478
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    Still in, my theory is rates go lower due to the debt and trying to stimulate the economy. Both will fail.

    I think the market will be fine for another year, no longer. But I have taken some out.

    I believe the meltdown begins no later than summer of 2017, just in time for the next president. Obama will leave a mess for the next guy ( or gal) just like Bush gave him a problem.

    Oil price drop is to punish Putin, it is made possible by shale production, but my guess it won’t be forever, a few years max, probably less.

    The problem with the oil price drop is that shale was an area of good high wage jobs, that will end. Also it was a place for investment. That will end. The american consumer may save a few dollars a month, but they won’t spend it on anything useful, they’ll just piss it away on beer or weed. It’s a zero sum game. China is the beneficiary, cheaper energy, cheaper plastic, Americans spend less on oil, more on shit made in China.

    For the U.s. It is a mixed bag, but maybe it’s a net positive, not sure.

    #63479
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    I need to start taking some out as well but with below 1% returns on most everything else or at best keep up with inflation, you’re kind of screwed either way unless you’re goal is to just stop the bleeding but with zero chance of any gains.

    Agree with most of those theories except Libertarians (not that I agree with all of what they say but they make sense on this one) say it’s not so much to punish Putin (although that’s part of it) as it is S.Arabia et. al. not decreasing production for the first time (they always decrease production after falling prices except this time) in order to keep fracturing from being necessary. They say if oil prices are kept artificially low it creates a disincentive to pursue alternative methods as aggressively. That’s their conspiracy theory anyway.

    Regardless of the causes, if it remains low, since so much of the world depends on oil money, it will be a mess globally.

    #63496
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    Don’t forget, there is still a war in Syria and one brewing in the Ukraine. Both of these are Russian natural gas pipeline routes. The Saudis want to pipeline gas to Europe, but they can’t go through syria, yet. The Crimea is russias way to ship out gas in that direction, both syria and crimea are critical to putin.

    6 months ago oil was $100/ barrel, now it is $45, that is not a supply and demand reason for the drop, supply and demand allowed the political decision to happen.

    The market is going to get crushed soon. Look at
    null

    Notice how the market drops at the end of each presidential term? The grey lines indicate a recession, also after each president.

    What they do is they have low rates during the presidential term, that helps the economy and forces people into stocks, then at the end of their term, they pop the bubble by raising rates. They have done this for decades.

    The difference now are that rates are so low that they can’t go too much lower AND. The economy is weak. So they keep printing money to encourage the economy. This is simply using government debt to buy GDP. We create more debt than we create GDP, that is never a good thing.

    #68446
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    This might actually exist in this mile long thread, but I figured it belongs here. Hope you have a spare 3 hours.

    #68704
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    @fishfryer said:
    Greece, you all know that they are collapsing. Their problem, a lack of exports has created a debt to GDP ratio that is so high that they cannot ever hope to pay off or even finance that debt. It is on par with ours in the U.S.

    Spain will collapse next. Then most likely the U.S.

    Our trade deficit is $52 billion per month, that means that we, as a country send $52 billion out every month that has to be replaced. We do that by going into debt. We now owe $16 trillion. In contrast, Russia is only in the hole for about $130 billion, less than 1% of what we owe.

    Oweing money is bad, but not being able to pay the interest on that loan is worse, but worse than that is borrowing more money from yourself to go further into debt to buy stuff you don’t need. Yes that sound insane and almost not possible, but this is what our country does.

    This is not a political thread meant to say vote for Obama or not or Romney or not, both democrats and republicans are guilty. This thread is mearly a list of my random thoughts on the subject of why I think that our path is unsustainable and how I plan on saving myself. If these thoughts make sense to you, maybe you might also take some precautions too.

    Either way, much like the majestic cockaroach after a nuclear war, I will be fine. My ability to plan for the worst is only outdone by my paranoia. 8-O

    I’m quoting myself from 3 years ago. The second post in this thread.

    Greece collapses tomorrow.

    #68818
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    I agreed with what you said back then (in my mind if not in a post :) ) except you said they are on par with U.S. which I have to take exception with. They may owe same percentage but they have no where near the type of economy (work ethics, etc..) to pay it back and knew it when they were spending it and promising all the entitlements. That’s not to say any significant debt by any country is good just saying a rich economy in debt has more possible future means to pay it back at some point than a poor one to begin with that’s taking out huge loans … neither is good but they are not on par or comparable imho. All that said; 18 trillion is completely nuts and rich economy or not there ain’t no way that’s getting balanced or even ‘on the path to being balanced’ any time in our lifetime unless there’s a major cultural shift of who people vote into Washington which I don’t see happening.

    Either way, all I know is that little tiny economy of theirs has thoroughly screwed me over on my investments this week. I’m not going to change anything though because I’m either too stubborn, too stupid or a combination of the two. The thing that sucks is that the markets are so touchy feely overly sensitive even on things that have no real effect. It works the other way too, watch as soon as they announce higher job growth for the quarter and/or higher home sales and/or slower than anticipated fed increasing interest rates market will shoot up again even if there’s no real power or sustainability behind any of those things. I’m almost better off just not watching it at all and burying my head in the sand.

    #68862
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    “But citing bankers and businesspeople with knowledge of the measures, the Financial Times reported: “The plans, which call for a ‘haircut’ of at least 30 percent on deposits above 8,000 euros, sketch out an increasingly likely scenario for at least one bank”.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/03/eurozone-greece-haircut-idUSL8N0ZJ3HL20150703

    While the U.S. different from Greece in that we will not default on our debt, we will print more debt at a faster rate to pay off the debt and interest. The result is that inflation will steal your buying power. The result is the same.

    If by chance there is no inflation with additional money printing it signals that something very strange is occurring.

    #69742
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    #72795
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    Fish bait…

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will know peace...

    #72796
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    When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will know peace...

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